V-Lab
Vivmark Residential Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
21.57%
1 Week
21.04%
1 Month
19.45%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 12, 1993 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 28% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.10 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0430 | 7.03*** |
| αARCH | 0.1637 | 13.82*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8233 | 67.46*** |
| γleverage | 0.1104 | 3.65*** |
| δpower | 1.1040 | 8.21*** |
0.955
Persistence15d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0430 | 7.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1637 | 13.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8233 | 67.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1104 | 3.65*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1040 | 8.21*** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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