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XP Corporate Macae Fundo DE Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

18.72%

increased by 0.85%

1 Week

18.99%

increased by 1.12%

1 Month

19.80%

increased by 1.93%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of XP Corporate Macae Fundo DE APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 8, 2013 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. The volatility power δ = 1.21 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-lifeδ = 1.21 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0721
5.41***
αARCH0.2685
8.38***
βGARCH0.7315
24.64***
γleverage-0.0148
-0.26
δpower1.2148
4.16***

0.950

Persistence

14d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0721
5.41***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2685
8.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7315
24.64***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0148
-0.26
δ

power

Transformation power

1.2148
4.16***

Persistence:

0.950

Half-life:

14 days