V-Lab
XP Corporate Macae Fundo DE Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
18.72%
1 Week
18.99%
1 Month
19.80%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 8, 2013 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. The volatility power δ = 1.21 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0721 | 5.41*** |
| αARCH | 0.2685 | 8.38*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7315 | 24.64*** |
| γleverage | -0.0148 | -0.26 |
| δpower | 1.2148 | 4.16*** |
0.950
Persistence14d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0721 | 5.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2685 | 8.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7315 | 24.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0148 | -0.26 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2148 | 4.16*** |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
14 days
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