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V-Lab

XP Corporate Macae Fundo DE Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

13.49%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Week

15.93%

increased by 2.31%

1 Month

19.34%

increased by 5.72%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of XP Corporate Macae Fundo DE SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 8, 2013 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.5558
6.03***
αARCH0.2469
6.56***
βGARCH0.6020
12.21***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.0356
-0.12
γ20.2734
0.60
γ3-1.1908
-3.23***
γ42.5086
5.69***
γ5-2.6947
-4.32***
γ61.5034
1.92*
γ7-0.7665
-1.19
γ81.2801
2.59***
γ9-2.3117
-3.42***

0.849

Persistence

4d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5558
6.03***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2469
6.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6020
12.21***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.0356
-0.12
γ20.2734
0.60
γ3-1.1908
-3.23***
γ42.5086
5.69***
γ5-2.6947
-4.32***
γ61.5034
1.92*
γ7-0.7665
-1.19
γ81.2801
2.59***
γ9-2.3117
-3.42***

Persistence:

0.849

Half-life:

4 days