V-Lab
XP Corporate Macae Fundo DE Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
13.49%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
15.93%
increased by 2.31%
1 Month
19.34%
increased by 5.72%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 8, 2013 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5558 | 6.03*** |
| αARCH | 0.2469 | 6.56*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6020 | 12.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0356 | -0.12 |
| γ2 | 0.2734 | 0.60 |
| γ3 | -1.1908 | -3.23*** |
| γ4 | 2.5086 | 5.69*** |
| γ5 | -2.6947 | -4.32*** |
| γ6 | 1.5034 | 1.92* |
| γ7 | -0.7665 | -1.19 |
| γ8 | 1.2801 | 2.59*** |
| γ9 | -2.3117 | -3.42*** |
0.849
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5558 | 6.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2469 | 6.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6020 | 12.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0356 | -0.12 |
| γ2 | 0.2734 | 0.60 |
| γ3 | -1.1908 | -3.23*** |
| γ4 | 2.5086 | 5.69*** |
| γ5 | -2.6947 | -4.32*** |
| γ6 | 1.5034 | 1.92* |
| γ7 | -0.7665 | -1.19 |
| γ8 | 1.2801 | 2.59*** |
| γ9 | -2.3117 | -3.42*** |
Persistence:
0.849
Half-life:
4 days
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