V-Lab
BTG Pactual Real Estate Hedge Fund FII - Responsabilidade Limitada Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
12.57%
1 Week
11.11%
1 Month
8.29%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 17, 2024 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. The volatility power δ = 1.03 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0375 | 1.40 |
| αARCH | 0.2736 | 5.02*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6645 | 10.55*** |
| γleverage | -0.1145 | -1.89* |
| δpower | 1.0323 | 1.26 |
0.883
Persistence6d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0375 | 1.40 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2736 | 5.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6645 | 10.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1145 | -1.89* |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0323 | 1.26 |
Persistence:
0.883
Half-life:
6 days
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