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V-Lab

BTG Pactual Real Estate Hedge Fund FII - Responsabilidade Limitada Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

12.57%

increased by 3.47%

1 Week

11.11%

increased by 2.01%

1 Month

8.29%

decreased by 0.81%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:33 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of BTG Pactual Real Estate Hedge Fund FII - Responsabilidade Limitada APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 17, 2024 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. The volatility power δ = 1.03 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifeδ = 1.03 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0375
1.40
αARCH0.2736
5.02***
βGARCH0.6645
10.55***
γleverage-0.1145
-1.89*
δpower1.0323
1.26

0.883

Persistence

6d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0375
1.40
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2736
5.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6645
10.55***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1145
-1.89*
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0323
1.26

Persistence:

0.883

Half-life:

6 days