V-Lab
BTG Pactual Real Estate Hedge Fund FII - Responsabilidade Limitada AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
17.53%
increased by 2.26%
1 Week
17.26%
increased by 1.99%
1 Month
16.45%
increased by 1.18%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 17, 2024 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0305 | 1.21 |
| αARCH | 0.0981 | 2.49** |
| βGARCH | 0.8520 | 18.67*** |
| γleverage | -0.3319 | -1.36 |
0.950
Persistence14d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0305 | 1.21 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0981 | 2.49** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8520 | 18.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3319 | -1.36 |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
14 days
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