V-Lab
Kimco Realty Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
13.72%
decreased by 0.70%
1 Week
14.01%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Month
15.05%
increased by 0.63%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:12 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 22, 1991 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~74 daysv = 6.14 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.4628 | 1.70* |
| αARCH | 0.0758 | 10.66*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9906 | 168.71*** |
| νDF | 6.1392 | 2.71*** |
0.991
Persistence74d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4628 | 1.70* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0758 | 10.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9906 | 168.71*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.1392 | 2.71*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
74 days
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