V-Lab
Sunlight Real Estate Investment Trust GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
15.67%
decreased by 1.31%
1 Week
16.29%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Month
18.15%
increased by 1.17%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 08:08 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 21, 2006 to Sep 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 20-day half-lifev = 4.24 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.1950 | 1.29 |
| αARCH | 0.1191 | 5.66*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9666 | 38.28*** |
| νDF | 4.2382 | 2.40** |
0.967
Persistence20d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1950 | 1.29 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1191 | 5.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9666 | 38.28*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.2382 | 2.40** |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
20 days
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