V-Lab
FII RB CAPITAL I Fundo de Fundos GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, May 22nd, 2026
1 Day
13.77%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Week
14.41%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Month
16.45%
increased by 1.82%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, May 23, 2026 at 04:23 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 2020 to May 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 34 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 34 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.39 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 34-day half-lifev = 3.39 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.5392 | 3.81*** |
| αARCH | 0.0819 | 23.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9796 | 177.52*** |
| νDF | 3.3947 | 14.03*** |
0.980
Persistence34d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5392 | 3.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0819 | 23.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9796 | 177.52*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.3947 | 14.03*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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