V-Lab
Shopping Patio Higienopolis GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
34.95%
1 Week
35.76%
1 Month
38.82%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 20, 2005 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 370 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 66.1598 | 1.45 |
| αARCH | 0.1590 | 22.09*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9981 | 797.23*** |
| νDF | 3.2037 | 14.75*** |
0.998
Persistence370d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 66.1598 | 1.45 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1590 | 22.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9981 | 797.23*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.2037 | 14.75*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
370 days
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