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Shopping Patio Higienopolis GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

34.95%

decreased by 6.53%

1 Week

35.76%

decreased by 5.72%

1 Month

38.82%

decreased by 2.66%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shopping Patio Higienopolis GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 20, 2005 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 370 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~370 daysv = 3.20 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst66.1598
1.45
αARCH0.1590
22.09***
βGARCH0.9981
797.23***
νDF3.2037
14.75***

0.998

Persistence

370d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

66.1598
1.45
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1590
22.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9981
797.23***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.2037
14.75***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

370 days