V-Lab
Real Investor Fundo De Investimento Imobiliario GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
9.36%
increased by 2.12%
1 Week
9.55%
increased by 2.31%
1 Month
9.93%
increased by 2.69%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:33 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 14, 2023 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifev = 4.18 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4178 | 1.35 |
| αARCH | 0.1117 | 1.59 |
| βGARCH | 0.8827 | 9.94*** |
| νDF | 4.1776 | 0.67 |
0.883
Persistence6d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4178 | 1.35 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1117 | 1.59 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8827 | 9.94*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1776 | 0.67 |
Persistence:
0.883
Half-life:
6 days
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