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Real Investor Fundo De Investimento Imobiliario GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

9.36%

increased by 2.12%

1 Week

9.55%

increased by 2.31%

1 Month

9.93%

increased by 2.69%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:33 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Real Investor Fundo De Investimento Imobiliario GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 14, 2023 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifev = 4.18 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.4178
1.35
αARCH0.1117
1.59
βGARCH0.8827
9.94***
νDF4.1776
0.67

0.883

Persistence

6d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4178
1.35
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1117
1.59
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8827
9.94***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.1776
0.67

Persistence:

0.883

Half-life:

6 days