V-Lab
H&R Real Estate Investment Trust MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
20.46%
increased by 2.01%
1 Week
21.60%
increased by 3.15%
1 Month
23.02%
increased by 4.57%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 26, 1997 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 216% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 216% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.0920 | 3.38*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5953 | 13.25*** |
| γleverage | 0.1984 | 3.85*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0033 | 1.57 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0273 | 3.79*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9718 | 131.62*** |
0.786
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0920 | 3.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5953 | 13.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1984 | 3.85*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0033 | 1.57 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0273 | 3.79*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9718 | 131.62*** |
Persistence:
0.786
Half-life:
3 days
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