V-Lab
Navi Imobiliario Total Return FII MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
20.73%
1 Week
21.81%
1 Month
21.63%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 26, 2021 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.2588 | 3.43*** |
| βGARCH | 0.2157 | 1.34 |
| γleverage | -0.2578 | -3.66*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0446 | 1.39 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0746 | 3.29*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9065 | 35.76*** |
0.346
Persistence1d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2588 | 3.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2157 | 1.34 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2578 | -3.66*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0446 | 1.39 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0746 | 3.29*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9065 | 35.76*** |
Persistence:
0.346
Half-life:
1 days
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