V-Lab
Navi Imobiliario Total Return FII GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
24.21%
decreased by 2.87%
1 Week
24.74%
decreased by 2.34%
1 Month
26.22%
decreased by 0.86%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:24 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 26, 2021 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.09 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-lifev = 3.09 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.4239 | 0.67 |
| αARCH | 0.1144 | 2.58*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9511 | 14.00*** |
| νDF | 3.0898 | 1.93* |
0.951
Persistence14d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.4239 | 0.67 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1144 | 2.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9511 | 14.00*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.0898 | 1.93* |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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