V-Lab
Signature Residency REIT APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
12.38%
1 Week
12.86%
1 Month
13.03%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 09:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. The volatility power δ = 3.00 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3429 | 1.25 |
| αARCH | 0.1200 | 0.76 |
| βGARCH | 0.1755 | 0.69 |
| γleverage | 0.1857 | 0.77 |
| δpower | 3.0000 | 0.93 |
0.387
Persistence1d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3429 | 1.25 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1200 | 0.76 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1755 | 0.69 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1857 | 0.77 |
δ power Transformation power | 3.0000 | 0.93 |
Persistence:
0.387
Half-life:
1 days
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