V-Lab
Fundo De Investimento Imobiliario Caixa Agencias APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
14.85%
1 Week
14.75%
1 Month
14.55%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2022 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. The volatility power δ = 1.75 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0946 | 3.04*** |
| αARCH | 0.1044 | 1.92* |
| βGARCH | 0.7715 | 12.32*** |
| γleverage | -0.5508 | -1.41 |
| δpower | 1.7542 | 2.96*** |
0.887
Persistence6d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0946 | 3.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1044 | 1.92* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7715 | 12.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5508 | -1.41 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7542 | 2.96*** |
Persistence:
0.887
Half-life:
6 days
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