V-Lab
Town Centre Securities PLC MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
32.52%
decreased by 1.46%
1 Week
32.67%
decreased by 1.31%
1 Month
33.26%
decreased by 0.72%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 17, 1993 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 313 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~313 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0289 | 1.34 |
| αARCH | 0.0989 | 8.44*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8989 | 113.27*** |
0.998
Persistence313d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0289 | 1.34 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0989 | 8.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8989 | 113.27*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
313 days
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