V-Lab
Hedge Recebiveis FII Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
16.20%
1 Week
18.24%
1 Month
22.12%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 27, 2021 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. The volatility power δ = 2.27 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2710 | 1.82* |
| αARCH | 0.2720 | 5.43*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6062 | 7.47*** |
| γleverage | 0.0718 | 1.13 |
| δpower | 2.2743 | 3.48*** |
0.912
Persistence7d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2710 | 1.82* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2720 | 5.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6062 | 7.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0718 | 1.13 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.2743 | 3.48*** |
Persistence:
0.912
Half-life:
7 days
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