V-Lab
Hedge Recebiveis FII Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
14.75%
increased by 2.44%
1 Week
11.21%
decreased by 1.10%
1 Month
9.73%
decreased by 2.58%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 27, 2021 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6733 | 2.23** |
| αARCH | 0.2258 | 3.22*** |
| βGARCH | 0.1286 | 0.81 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.1192 | 0.03 |
| γ2 | 0.3117 | 0.05 |
| γ3 | 3.0301 | 0.57 |
| γ4 | -11.2723 | -2.12** |
| γ5 | 15.3273 | 5.01*** |
| γ6 | -13.4552 | -5.70*** |
| γ7 | 10.7335 | 3.44*** |
| γ8 | -11.6485 | -3.26*** |
0.354
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6733 | 2.23** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2258 | 3.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1286 | 0.81 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.1192 | 0.03 |
| γ2 | 0.3117 | 0.05 |
| γ3 | 3.0301 | 0.57 |
| γ4 | -11.2723 | -2.12** |
| γ5 | 15.3273 | 5.01*** |
| γ6 | -13.4552 | -5.70*** |
| γ7 | 10.7335 | 3.44*** |
| γ8 | -11.6485 | -3.26*** |
Persistence:
0.354
Half-life:
1 days
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