V-Lab
Simon Property Group Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
16.22%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Week
16.91%
increased by 0.10%
1 Month
18.72%
increased by 1.91%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:16 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 14, 1993 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5730 | 6.73*** |
| αARCH | 0.1078 | 9.17*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8378 | 52.34*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0335 | 0.54 |
| γ2 | -0.0950 | -1.03 |
| γ3 | 0.0743 | 1.23 |
| γ4 | 0.1135 | 1.69* |
| γ5 | -0.3551 | -5.25*** |
| γ6 | 0.3727 | 6.33*** |
| γ7 | -0.1634 | -3.01*** |
| γ8 | 0.0637 | 1.24 |
| γ9 | -0.1447 | -2.31** |
| γ10 | 0.1448 | 1.54 |
0.946
Persistence12d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5730 | 6.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1078 | 9.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8378 | 52.34*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0335 | 0.54 |
| γ2 | -0.0950 | -1.03 |
| γ3 | 0.0743 | 1.23 |
| γ4 | 0.1135 | 1.69* |
| γ5 | -0.3551 | -5.25*** |
| γ6 | 0.3727 | 6.33*** |
| γ7 | -0.1634 | -3.01*** |
| γ8 | 0.0637 | 1.24 |
| γ9 | -0.1447 | -2.31** |
| γ10 | 0.1448 | 1.54 |
Persistence:
0.946
Half-life:
12 days
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