V-Lab
GPT Group/The GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
22.46%
increased by 2.74%
1 Week
22.46%
increased by 2.74%
1 Month
22.49%
increased by 2.77%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:08 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 68 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 68 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 68-day half-lifev = 7.18 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.0664 | 1.81* |
| αARCH | 0.0652 | 8.83*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9898 | 166.44*** |
| νDF | 7.1820 | 1.64 |
0.990
Persistence68d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0664 | 1.81* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0652 | 8.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9898 | 166.44*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.1820 | 1.64 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
68 days
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