Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

GPT Group/The GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

22.46%

increased by 2.74%

1 Week

22.46%

increased by 2.74%

1 Month

22.49%

increased by 2.77%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:08 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of GPT Group/The GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 68 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 68 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 68-day half-lifev = 7.18 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.0664
1.81*
αARCH0.0652
8.83***
βGARCH0.9898
166.44***
νDF7.1820
1.64

0.990

Persistence

68d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.0664
1.81*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0652
8.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9898
166.44***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.1820
1.64

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

68 days