V-Lab
GPT Group/The GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
21.99%
increased by 0.64%
1 Week
21.99%
increased by 0.64%
1 Month
21.98%
increased by 0.63%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:07 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 208% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~71 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 208% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0183 | 4.25*** |
| αARCH | 0.0235 | 3.81*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9424 | 142.68*** |
| γleverage | 0.0489 | 3.08*** |
0.990
Persistence71d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0183 | 4.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0235 | 3.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9424 | 142.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0489 | 3.08*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
71 days
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