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GPT Group/The GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

21.99%

increased by 0.64%

1 Week

21.99%

increased by 0.64%

1 Month

21.98%

increased by 0.63%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:07 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of GPT Group/The GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 208% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~71 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 208% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0183
4.25***
αARCH0.0235
3.81***
βGARCH0.9424
142.68***
γleverage0.0489
3.08***

0.990

Persistence

71d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0183
4.25***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0235
3.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9424
142.68***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0489
3.08***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

71 days