V-Lab
Charter Hall Group GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
34.55%
increased by 4.36%
1 Week
34.60%
increased by 4.41%
1 Month
34.82%
increased by 4.63%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2005 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 206 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~206 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0236 | 4.07*** |
| αARCH | 0.0330 | 3.61*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9485 | 136.46*** |
| γleverage | 0.0303 | 1.69* |
0.997
Persistence206d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0236 | 4.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0330 | 3.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9485 | 136.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0303 | 1.69* |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
206 days
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