V-Lab
Charter Hall Group MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
34.79%
increased by 6.02%
1 Week
34.39%
increased by 5.62%
1 Month
33.66%
increased by 4.89%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2005 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 151% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 151% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 66 | |
| αARCH | 0.0431 | 3.38*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8268 | 29.83*** |
| γleverage | 0.0653 | 2.90*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0272 | 1.73* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0803 | 3.57*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9145 | 38.34*** |
0.903
Persistence7d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0431 | 3.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8268 | 29.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0653 | 2.90*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0272 | 1.73* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0803 | 3.57*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9145 | 38.34*** |
Persistence:
0.903
Half-life:
7 days
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