V-Lab
Icbc Credit Suisse- Mengneng MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
33.37%
1 Week
40.35%
1 Month
93.93%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 07:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 13, 2024 to Sep 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 99% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 116 | |
| αARCH | 1.0000 | 9.88*** |
| βGARCH | 0.2213 | 7.84*** |
| γleverage | -0.4969 | -2.91*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.4180 | 0.65 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1351 | 0.49 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8649 | 3.11*** |
0.973
Persistence25d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 116 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 1.0000 | 9.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2213 | 7.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.4969 | -2.91*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.4180 | 0.65 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1351 | 0.49 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8649 | 3.11*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
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