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V-Lab
V-Lab

Icbc Credit Suisse- Mengneng MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

33.37%

decreased by 0.81%

1 Week

40.35%

increased by 6.17%

1 Month

93.93%

increased by 59.75%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 07:25 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Icbc Credit Suisse- Mengneng MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 13, 2024 to Sep 30, 2026
Stationarity Enforced
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 99% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 99% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow116
αARCH1.0000
9.88***
βGARCH0.2213
7.84***
γleverage-0.4969
-2.91***
λ₁tau intercept0.4180
0.65
λ₂forecast adj.0.1351
0.49
λ₃tau persistence0.8649
3.11***

0.973

Persistence

25d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

116
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

1.0000
9.88***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2213
7.84***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.4969
-2.91***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.4180
0.65
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1351
0.49
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8649
3.11***

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

25 days