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V-Lab
V-Lab

Icbc Credit Suisse- Mengneng GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

33.94%

increased by 3.53%

1 Week

32.21%

increased by 1.80%

1 Month

28.50%

decreased by 1.91%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 07:24 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Icbc Credit Suisse- Mengneng GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 13, 2024 to Sep 30, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.79 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifev = 2.79 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.4178
0.51
αARCH0.1708
1.54
βGARCH0.8817
3.82***
νDF2.7877
1.43

0.882

Persistence

6d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.4178
0.51
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1708
1.54
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8817
3.82***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.7877
1.43

Persistence:

0.882

Half-life:

6 days