V-Lab
Patria Securities Fundo De Investimento Imobiliario Responsabilidade Limitada Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
17.08%
decreased by 0.84%
1 Week
17.44%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Month
17.82%
decreased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 5, 2020 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7311 | 4.58*** |
| αARCH | 0.1384 | 3.94*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6076 | 6.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 1.3904 | 0.52 |
| γ2 | 2.9010 | 0.72 |
| γ3 | -10.8749 | -4.30*** |
| γ4 | 11.2235 | 3.81*** |
| γ5 | -4.8073 | -1.33 |
| γ6 | -3.0122 | -0.78 |
| γ7 | 7.3896 | 2.55** |
| γ8 | -9.2298 | -4.31*** |
| γ9 | 9.5671 | 3.65*** |
| γ10 | -6.0839 | -2.75*** |
0.746
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7311 | 4.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1384 | 3.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6076 | 6.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 1.3904 | 0.52 |
| γ2 | 2.9010 | 0.72 |
| γ3 | -10.8749 | -4.30*** |
| γ4 | 11.2235 | 3.81*** |
| γ5 | -4.8073 | -1.33 |
| γ6 | -3.0122 | -0.78 |
| γ7 | 7.3896 | 2.55** |
| γ8 | -9.2298 | -4.31*** |
| γ9 | 9.5671 | 3.65*** |
| γ10 | -6.0839 | -2.75*** |
Persistence:
0.746
Half-life:
2 days
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