V-Lab
STAG Industrial Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
18.72%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Week
19.19%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
20.59%
increased by 1.42%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:16 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 15, 2011 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3024 | 6.23*** |
| αARCH | 0.0728 | 4.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8921 | 40.78*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0184 | 2.21** |
| γ2 | -0.0218 | -2.11** |
0.965
Persistence19d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3024 | 6.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0728 | 4.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8921 | 40.78*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0184 | 2.21** |
| γ2 | -0.0218 | -2.11** |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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