V-Lab
Patria Top Offices Fundo de Investimento Imobiliario - Responsabilidade Limitada Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
19.13%
increased by 0.01%
1 Week
19.23%
increased by 0.11%
1 Month
19.34%
increased by 0.22%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 7, 2024 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.2134 | 6.32*** |
| αARCH | 0.1374 | 2.61*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6213 | 3.04*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 4.1997 | 5.05*** |
| γ2 | -5.0163 | -2.97*** |
0.759
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.2134 | 6.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1374 | 2.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6213 | 3.04*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 4.1997 | 5.05*** |
| γ2 | -5.0163 | -2.97*** |
Persistence:
0.759
Half-life:
3 days
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