V-Lab
Patria Top Offices Fundo de Investimento Imobiliario - Responsabilidade Limitada Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
12.96%
1 Week
13.53%
1 Month
14.82%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 7, 2024 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. The volatility power δ = 1.31 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0906 | 2.48** |
| αARCH | 0.3396 | 4.51*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6317 | 8.15*** |
| γleverage | -0.0714 | -1.20 |
| δpower | 1.3094 | 2.66*** |
0.913
Persistence8d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0906 | 2.48** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3396 | 4.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6317 | 8.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0714 | -1.20 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.3094 | 2.66*** |
Persistence:
0.913
Half-life:
8 days
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