V-Lab
Patria Top Offices Fundo de Investimento Imobiliario - Responsabilidade Limitada MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
18.99%
1 Week
19.31%
1 Month
19.64%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 7, 2024 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 96 | |
| αARCH | 0.2821 | 5.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6225 | 6.60*** |
| γleverage | -0.2821 | -5.57*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0421 | 0.84 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0251 | 1.65* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9481 | 27.18*** |
0.764
Persistence3d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 96 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2821 | 5.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6225 | 6.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2821 | -5.57*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0421 | 0.84 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0251 | 1.65* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9481 | 27.18*** |
Persistence:
0.764
Half-life:
3 days
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