V-Lab
Patria Top Offices Fundo de Investimento Imobiliario - Responsabilidade Limitada APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
17.60%
1 Week
17.60%
1 Month
17.61%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 7, 2024 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days. The volatility power δ = 3.00 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0446 | 1.19 |
| αARCH | 0.0520 | 1.04 |
| βGARCH | 0.8818 | 19.60*** |
| γleverage | -0.1038 | -0.65 |
| δpower | 3.0000 | 2.59*** |
0.967
Persistence21d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0446 | 1.19 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0520 | 1.04 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8818 | 19.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1038 | -0.65 |
δ power Transformation power | 3.0000 | 2.59*** |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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