V-Lab
TransMedics Group, Inc. Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
56.85%
decreased by 1.00%
1 Week
63.12%
increased by 5.27%
1 Month
66.95%
increased by 9.10%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 2, 2019 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7924 | 8.29*** |
| αARCH | 0.1870 | 2.65*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4257 | 4.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0682 | -1.63 |
| γ2 | 0.0826 | 1.51 |
0.613
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7924 | 8.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1870 | 2.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4257 | 4.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0682 | -1.63 |
| γ2 | 0.0826 | 1.51 |
Persistence:
0.613
Half-life:
1 days
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