V-Lab
S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
29.61%
increased by 1.01%
1 Week
29.68%
increased by 1.08%
1 Month
29.92%
increased by 1.32%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 11:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 47% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0212 | 16.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1435 | 30.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9849 | 1,147.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0274 | -7.36*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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