V-Lab
S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
45.03%
increased by 0.76%
1 Week
44.96%
increased by 0.69%
1 Month
44.73%
increased by 0.46%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:56 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~74 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0636 | 6.66*** |
| αARCH | 0.0842 | 9.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9066 | 107.24*** |
0.991
Persistence74d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0636 | 6.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0842 | 9.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9066 | 107.24*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
74 days
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