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S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

34.96%

increased by 0.67%

1 Week

35.09%

increased by 0.80%

1 Month

35.58%

increased by 1.29%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:51 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~73 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0639
6.68***
αARCH0.0841
9.02***
βGARCH0.9065
106.97***

0.991

Persistence

73d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0639
6.68***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0841
9.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9065
106.97***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

73 days