S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
34.96%
increased by 0.67%
1 Week
35.09%
increased by 0.80%
1 Month
35.58%
increased by 1.29%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:51 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~73 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0639 | 6.68*** |
| αARCH | 0.0841 | 9.02*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9065 | 106.97*** |
0.991
Persistence73d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0639 | 6.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0841 | 9.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9065 | 106.97*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
73 days
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