V-Lab
Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
41.25%
decreased by 2.85%
1 Week
42.24%
decreased by 1.86%
1 Month
44.17%
increased by 0.07%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 5, 1993 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2288 | 7.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1607 | 10.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7240 | 31.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0016 | -0.37 |
| γ2 | 0.0068 | 1.13 |
| γ3 | -0.0076 | -2.81*** |
Persistence:
0.885
Half-life:
6 days
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