V-Lab
FT Vest Nasdaq-100 ETF - MAY Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
7.29%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Week
7.58%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Month
8.41%
increased by 0.71%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 20, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0685 | 2.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1679 | 3.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7959 | 11.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0300 | 0.21 |
Persistence:
0.964
Half-life:
19 days
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