V-Lab
Profound Medical Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
68.01%
1 Week
70.27%
1 Month
70.56%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 30, 2019 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 382% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1039 | 2.27** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5483 | 15.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0823 | -2.15** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.3822 | 0.07 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0184 | 0.12 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9606 | 2.01** |
Persistence:
0.611
Half-life:
1 days
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