V-Lab
PMA Graphene Technology Group Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
125.16%
1 Week
133.81%
1 Month
135.87%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 22, 2024 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 239% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.2852 | 4.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| γleverage | -0.2011 | -3.03*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.48 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8647 | 3.25*** |
0.185
Persistence0d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2852 | 4.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2011 | -3.03*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.48 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8647 | 3.25*** |
Persistence:
0.185
Half-life:
0 days
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