Palisade Metals Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
108.34%
1 Week
110.16%
1 Month
115.04%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 05:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 23, 2021 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. The volatility power δ = 1.29 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8972 | 0.83 |
| αARCH | 0.1095 | 3.02*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8462 | 13.82*** |
| γleverage | -0.0493 | -0.33 |
| δpower | 1.2922 | 2.87*** |
0.937
Persistence11d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8972 | 0.83 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1095 | 3.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8462 | 13.82*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0493 | -0.33 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2922 | 2.87*** |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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