Palisade Metals Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
125.36%
decreased by 63.32%
1 Week
150.60%
decreased by 38.08%
1 Month
224.82%
increased by 36.14%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 05:58 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 23, 2021 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~693147 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0713 | |
| αARCH | 0.6564 | |
| βGARCH | 0.3436 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 35.8397 | |
| γ2 | -172.8212 | |
| γ3 | 368.4083 | |
| γ4 | -471.5972 | |
| γ5 | 422.6238 | |
| γ6 | -263.1360 | |
| γ7 | 92.6065 | |
| γ8 | -19.2769 | |
| γ9 | 14.0111 |
1.000
Persistence693147d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0713 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.6564 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3436 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 35.8397 | |
| γ2 | -172.8212 | |
| γ3 | 368.4083 | |
| γ4 | -471.5972 | |
| γ5 | 422.6238 | |
| γ6 | -263.1360 | |
| γ7 | 92.6065 | |
| γ8 | -19.2769 | |
| γ9 | 14.0111 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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