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V-Lab
V-Lab

Palisade Metals Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

125.36%

decreased by 63.32%

1 Week

150.60%

decreased by 38.08%

1 Month

224.82%

increased by 36.14%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 05:58 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Palisade Metals Ltd SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 23, 2021 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~693147 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0713
αARCH0.6564
βGARCH0.3436
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ135.8397
γ2-172.8212
γ3368.4083
γ4-471.5972
γ5422.6238
γ6-263.1360
γ792.6065
γ8-19.2769
γ914.0111

1.000

Persistence

693147d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0713
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.6564
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3436
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ135.8397
γ2-172.8212
γ3368.4083
γ4-471.5972
γ5422.6238
γ6-263.1360
γ792.6065
γ8-19.2769
γ914.0111

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

693147 days