Palisade Metals Ltd Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
117.69%
decreased by 6.88%
1 Week
118.84%
decreased by 5.73%
1 Month
123.34%
decreased by 1.23%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 05:58 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 23, 2021 to Oct 20, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 726 trading days (~2.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~726 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5965 | 2.50** |
| αARCH | 0.1486 | 3.21*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8509 | 31.70*** |
| γleverage | -0.0009 | -0.01 |
0.999
Persistence726d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5965 | 2.50** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1486 | 3.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8509 | 31.70*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0009 | -0.01 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
726 days
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