V-Lab
NBI Canadian Core Plus Bond Fund Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
5.15%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
5.18%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
5.21%
increased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 09:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 22, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0457 | 5.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0529 | 0.79 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7762 | 2.93*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.2567 | 0.38 |
Persistence:
0.829
Half-life:
4 days
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