V-Lab
NBI Canadian Core Plus Bond Fund GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
5.47%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
5.47%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
5.47%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 09:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 22, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 675 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 27.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1188 | 0.37 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 11.66*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 27.3289 | 0.55 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
675 days
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