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Manila Electric Co GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

38.97%

decreased by 2.25%

1 Week

39.15%

decreased by 2.07%

1 Month

39.81%

decreased by 1.41%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Manila Electric Co GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 7, 1995 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 45 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 45 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.39 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 45-day half-lifev = 3.39 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst7.9026
0.89
αARCH0.1050
9.67***
βGARCH0.9847
58.01***
νDF3.3921
5.56***

0.985

Persistence

45d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

7.9026
0.89
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1050
9.67***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9847
58.01***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.3921
5.56***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

45 days