V-Lab
Manila Electric Co GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
38.97%
decreased by 2.25%
1 Week
39.15%
decreased by 2.07%
1 Month
39.81%
decreased by 1.41%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 7, 1995 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 45 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 45 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.39 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 45-day half-lifev = 3.39 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 7.9026 | 0.89 |
| αARCH | 0.1050 | 9.67*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9847 | 58.01*** |
| νDF | 3.3921 | 5.56*** |
0.985
Persistence45d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 7.9026 | 0.89 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1050 | 9.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9847 | 58.01*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.3921 | 5.56*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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