V-Lab
Fundstrat Granny Shots US Small- & Mid-Cap ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
30.33%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
30.33%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
30.33%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 182 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 23.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.6510 | 0.67 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9962 | 0.93 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 23.1992 | 0.05 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
182 days
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