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V-Lab

Fundstrat Granny Shots US Small- & Mid-Cap ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

30.33%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

30.33%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

30.33%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Fundstrat Granny Shots US Small- & Mid-Cap ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 182 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 23.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.6510
0.67
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9962
0.93
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

23.1992
0.05

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

182 days