V-Lab
Genter Capital TAX Qlty Inmd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
3.76%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
3.83%
increased by 0.06%
1 Month
3.87%
increased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 22, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9305 | 8.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0433 | 0.77 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4591 | 0.65 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0341 | -0.70 |
Persistence:
0.502
Half-life:
1 days
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