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V-Lab
V-Lab

iShares Euro High Yield Corporate Bond USD Hedged ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

3.97%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Week

4.06%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Month

4.41%

increased by 0.31%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iShares Euro High Yield Corporate Bond USD Hedged ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 3, 2012 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 208 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~208 daysv = 6.11 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.5051
1.89*
αARCH0.0657
10.32***
βGARCH0.9967
635.22***
νDF6.1092
3.25***

0.997

Persistence

208d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5051
1.89*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0657
10.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9967
635.22***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.1092
3.25***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

208 days