V-Lab
iShares Euro High Yield Corporate Bond USD Hedged ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
3.97%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
4.06%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
4.41%
increased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 2012 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 208 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~208 daysv = 6.11 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5051 | 1.89* |
| αARCH | 0.0657 | 10.32*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9967 | 635.22*** |
| νDF | 6.1092 | 3.25*** |
0.997
Persistence208d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5051 | 1.89* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0657 | 10.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9967 | 635.22*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.1092 | 3.25*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
208 days
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