Eagle Football Group Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
36.18%
increased by 0.42%
1 Week
37.21%
increased by 1.45%
1 Month
39.43%
increased by 3.67%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 8, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6363 | 4.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2319 | 7.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6735 | 17.37*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.3426 | -1.54 |
| γ2 | 0.4247 | 1.19 |
| γ3 | -0.2673 | -1.00 |
| γ4 | 0.5730 | 2.73*** |
| γ5 | -0.9295 | -4.08*** |
| γ6 | 0.9302 | 4.06*** |
| γ7 | -0.4071 | -1.53 |
| γ8 | 0.0173 | 0.05 |
| γ9 | -0.0900 | -0.19 |
| γ10 | 0.1146 | 0.29 |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
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