V-Lab
Eagle Football Group Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
33.89%
increased by 2.17%
1 Week
35.58%
increased by 3.86%
1 Month
39.15%
increased by 7.43%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 8, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6304 | 4.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2314 | 7.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6759 | 17.61*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.3534 | -1.61 |
| γ2 | 0.4438 | 1.26 |
| γ3 | -0.2777 | -1.05 |
| γ4 | 0.5680 | 2.75*** |
| γ5 | -0.9157 | -4.15*** |
| γ6 | 0.9262 | 4.10*** |
| γ7 | -0.4037 | -1.52 |
| γ8 | -0.0160 | -0.04 |
| γ9 | -0.0357 | -0.07 |
| γ10 | 0.0778 | 0.19 |
Persistence:
0.907
Half-life:
7 days
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