V-Lab
Tire Company Debica S A GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
12.46%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
13.30%
increased by 0.81%
1 Month
16.09%
increased by 3.60%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 04:23 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 10, 1995 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 100 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.93 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.8368 | 4.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0802 | 90.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9931 | 709.36*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.9348 | 72.22*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
100 days
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