V-Lab
Tire Company Debica S A GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
13.21%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
13.68%
increased by 0.34%
1 Month
15.35%
increased by 2.01%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 04:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 10, 1995 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 135 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 27% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0285 | 17.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0553 | 17.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9322 | 505.23*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0148 | 2.44** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
135 days
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